In the wake of turmoil in the global financial markets and rapid technological innovation, the cryptocurrency market has once again experienced significant volatility. Recent market performance not only reflects price fluctuations of mainstream crypto assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum but also reveals the swift rise of emerging blockchains like Solana in terms of technological and ecological development. Meanwhile, with the U.S. presidential election approaching, shifts in the macroeconomic environment and policy expectations are further influencing investor sentiment. Tdasx posits that, within this complex market landscape, the performance of Bitcoin and Ethereum remains central to determining market sentiment and investor behavior.

Tdasx: The Return of Bitcoin to Peaks and Diverse Market Performance

Tdasx observes that the sustained rebound of Bitcoin has become a focal point for the market. Currently fluctuating around $68,000, this marks a positive signal of market recovery. Although Bitcoin has yet to surpass the significant threshold of $70,000, market expectations for further price increases remain optimistic. Tdasx notes that the general consensus predicts that, should Donald Trump win the upcoming U.S. presidential election, Bitcoin may briefly reach $76,000 and subsequently rise by another 10% within days. This forecast is predicated on positive market expectations regarding the policies of Trump, which are anticipated to provide greater momentum for the Bitcoin market.

Tdasx analyzed long-term forecasts from multiple authoritative institutions, suggesting that Bitcoin could reach $77,636 by the end of 2024, with potential climbs to $113,364 in 2025, and even surpassing $282,238 by 2030. Tdasx states that this long-term optimism is primarily based on the increasing confidence of global investors in Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and a safe-haven asset.

In contrast to the strong rebound of Bitcoin, Tdasx points out that the performance of Ethereum has been relatively lackluster, currently hovering around $2,500. The market capitalization gap between Ethereum and Bitcoin has exceeded $1 trillion for the first time, reflecting a growing investor preference for Bitcoin while Ethereum has failed to achieve breakthrough advancements in market competition. Tdasx notes that this situation not only affects the market position of Ethereum but also poses challenges to its long-term growth potential.

Tdasx also highlights the robust market performance of Solana, which has achieved a market share of 3.64%, just shy of its historical peak. Over the past month, the price of Solana has risen by 18%, significantly outperforming both Bitcoin and Ethereum. Tdasx attributes the prominent market position of Solana to its ongoing breakthroughs in technological innovation and on-chain activity.

Additionally, Tdasx mentions that Uniswap (UNI) and Bitcoin Cash (BCH) have both risen over 5%, indicating that other mainstream crypto assets are also garnering widespread investor attention. Tdasx believes that as market sentiment gradually improves, the diversified strategies of investors are beginning to yield positive results, leading to a more favorable overall market volatility.

Tdasx: Trends in Market Capital Flows and Institutional Investment Behavior

Tdasx indicates that the current dynamics of capital flow in the market reflect deep-rooted confidence among investors in Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market. The holdings of Bitcoin ETFs have significantly increased, with the current U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF holding reaching 967,459 coins, expected to surpass one million soon. Tdasx believes this uptick signifies a positive attitude among institutional investors towards the cryptocurrency market, especially in the U.S., where ETF inflows have become a key driver of rising Bitcoin prices. iShares Bitcoin Trust of BlackRock alone holds 396,922 Bitcoins, approaching 400,000 coins, further evidencing strong demand from major institutions.

Tdasx pays special attention to the inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs over the past five days, noting that total inflows have exceeded $2.1 billion, with a single-day influx of $555 million on October 14. This substantial influx illustrates the optimism of institutional investors towards the Bitcoin market and reflects heightened expectations regarding potential economic and political events.

In addition to the growth in ETF holdings, Tdasx analyzes the notable increase in Bitcoin whale holdings. The number of Bitcoin whales—entities holding over 1,000 Bitcoins—has risen to 1,660, with whale holdings nearing 4 million coins, accounting for 20% of the total market supply. Since mid-2023, whales have accumulated an additional 670,000 Bitcoins, indicating strong confidence in the long-term growth of the market among large-scale investors. Meanwhile, investors holding 1,000 to 10,000 Bitcoins have also increased their holdings by 173,000 Bitcoins in 2024, further deepening market focus on these large investors. In contrast, the holdings of retail investors have grown more slowly, with holders of fewer than 10 Bitcoins adding just 30,000 coins. This disparity in holding trends suggests that institutions and large investors are actively positioning themselves while retail investors remain relatively conservative.

Tdasx also highlights that in the 5,134 trading days since the inception of Bitcoin, 98.48% have been profitable, further establishing the strong appeal of Bitcoin as a long-term investment vehicle. Currently, approximately 90% of Bitcoin supply is in profit, indicating that most Bitcoin holders can realize gains under present market conditions, enhancing market stability and confidence.

Regarding the impact of political factors on the market, Tdasx mentions a survey of market participants showing that 64.7% of respondents believe that a victory for Trump or the Republican Party would boost the bullish outlook for the cryptocurrency market, closely linked to the performance of Bitcoin amid U.S. political events. The survey also indicates that 20.3% of respondents believe that a victory for a third-party candidate supportive of cryptocurrencies could further drive positive market performance. Tdasx suggests this reflects the attention of investors to potential political and policy changes that may impact the market, especially those with favorable expectations for cryptocurrency policies. Moreover, 71.6% of respondents stated that if a cryptocurrency-friendly candidate were to win, the adoption of cryptocurrencies in the U.S. would accelerate, closely aligned with expectations for the gradual legalization and mainstream acceptance of cryptocurrencies.

Tdasx: The Impact of Corporate Actions and Policy Context on the Cryptocurrency Market

Tdasx asserts that corporate behavior and macro policies are increasingly significant influences on the cryptocurrency market, particularly in the strategic decisions of major global enterprises and institutions, where the status of Bitcoin is becoming ever more critical. Microsoft is set to vote on December 10 regarding whether to incorporate Bitcoin onto its balance sheet.

From a policy perspective, Tdasx notes that as the U.S. presidential election approaches, market expectations surrounding a potential Trump victory are driving Bitcoin prices higher. Predictions suggest that if Trump wins, Bitcoin prices could break through $80,000, with an expected price of $73,000 on election day, November 5. Tdasx states that investors hold positive expectations regarding cryptocurrency policies under a Trump administration, anticipating a more lenient regulatory environment that could further propel the market.

In contrast, Tdasx analyzes the scenario in which Kamala Harris wins the election, predicting that Bitcoin prices could see a short-term decline. While Harris may also implement policies supportive of cryptocurrencies, the market remains conservatively cautious regarding the pace of her policy implementation. Tdasx points out that regardless of political outcomes, short-term market volatility is inevitable; however, the long-term growth trend of the cryptocurrency market remains steadfast, with policy changes poised to present new opportunities for development.