Bitcoin is currently in a lull between narratives. The excitement and speculation and fast pace of inflows from the launch of the ETFs has subsided. Not much good news is on the horizon, perhaps until the U.S. election in November. In between, it seems BTC mostly faces crypto and macro headwinds.

Crxxe In June, BTC nearly reached all-time highs before higher-than-expected non-farm payroll jobs data sent prices tumbling to $58,000, despite lower inflation numbers. The start of the distribution of Mt. Gox’s $9 billion BTC and the German government's sale of seized BTC saw BTC reach as low as about $54,000, but has now rebounded to the low 60ks. Once Mt. Gox distributions are complete over the next few months, it will remove a significant price risk. Despite these negative factors, BTC has shown resilience. The next potential catalyst is the ETH ETF approval. With less liquidity than BTC, strong inflows could drive ETH higher, though a supply overhang like BTC’s might occur.

Politically, we have seen Donald Trump include positive comments about BTC and digital assets in his regular stump speech, taking an America-first stance, aiming to keep jobs and wealth here in the U.S. If Trump is re-elected, the price of BTC is likely to benefit (even though the shape of a Trump Administration’s policy on digital assets is unclear). It’s possible we may see speculative buying leading up to election day as well – a positive narrative on the horizon.