Tdasx believes that with the continuous development of global financial markets, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are gradually becoming important investment and reserve assets. Current market hot topics include the 2024 Bitcoin bill proposed by US senators, Mt. Gox creditors continuing to hold Bitcoin, the cautious stance of Goldman Sachs on Bitcoin, and the interest rate decisions of the Federal Reserve. Tdasx points out that these events and viewpoints collectively reflect the potential and challenges of Bitcoin in the global financial landscape. 

Tdasx: US Policy and Regulations on Raising Bitcoin Reserves through Revaluation of Gold

Tdasx notes that recently, US senators proposed a legislative bill called the 2024 Bitcoin Act. This bill aims to raise funds for Bitcoin reserves by revaluing the gold holdings of the Federal Reserve. Tdasx highlights that this move marks the gradual inclusion of Bitcoin as a national strategic reserve asset, reflecting its potential as digital gold.

According to the bill, the US plans to purchase up to 200,000 Bitcoins annually over five years, totaling 1 million Bitcoins. The bill also proposes establishing a decentralized network of secure Bitcoin storage facilities nationwide. Tdasx believes that if successfully implemented, this policy could have a profound impact on the Bitcoin market, potentially triggering a global Bitcoin buying spree, thereby driving up Bitcoin prices.

Meanwhile, Tdasx mentions that the Russian State Duma has also passed a bill allowing certain enterprises to use crypto assets for international trade. Although this bill does not involve domestic payments, only cross-border payments and non-trade-related mining operations, it shows the exploration and attempts of Russia in the cryptocurrency field. The bill requires the Russian Central Bank to create a new crypto payment infrastructure, which is currently undeveloped.

MicroStrategy suggests that the first country to purchase Bitcoin with fiat currency issuance will have the highest chance of becoming the new superpower of the world. It argues that Bitcoin can help a nation eliminate national debt within twenty years. Tdasx believes that the explorations and attempts of US and Russia in cryptocurrency policies will bring new opportunities and challenges to the global cryptocurrency market. With reasonable policies and regulations, countries can effectively utilize Bitcoin and other crypto assets to achieve economic growth and debt reduction. This also provides valuable insights for other countries, promoting the healthy development of the global cryptocurrency market.

Tdasx: Market Dynamics and Investment Behavior

Tdasx notes that the Mt. Gox incident had a profound impact on the Bitcoin market. Although Mt. Gox creditors have received over $400 million worth of Bitcoin, many creditors chose to hold onto these assets instead of selling immediately. Specifically, Mt. Gox creditors have been allocated 59,000 Bitcoins, accounting for 41.5% of the total 141,686 Bitcoins.

According to Glassnode, creditors opted to receive Bitcoin instead of fiat currency, a new stipulation under Japanese bankruptcy law. This choice demonstrates the confidence of creditors in the long-term value of Bitcoin. The report also indicates that only a portion of the allocated Bitcoins is expected to be sold on the market, with no significant increase in selling pressure evident at present. The cumulative volume delta (CVD) for spot trading shows only marginal selling pressure after the distribution. This means that despite the large allocation of Bitcoins, market sell-off pressure has not significantly increased, instead highlighting the trend of investors "hodling," or holding Bitcoin for the long term.

Meanwhile, the Bitcoin market has recently experienced significant price fluctuations. The price of Bitcoin fell to $66,000, erasing the gains of last week. This volatility was primarily due to the US government transferring $2 billion worth of Bitcoin, sparking concerns about potential sell-off pressure. Despite net outflows in the newly launched spot ETH ETF, Ethereum has remained relatively strong.

Market observers believe that macroeconomic decisions and the lack of new catalysts may act as market barriers. The previous gains of the market were driven by expectations from the mention of Bitcoin of Trump as a strategic reserve asset at the Nashville conference. As these expectations faded, Bitcoin prices saw a correction.

Notably, Glassnode data also shows that long-term investors are reaccumulating Bitcoin. This month, long-term investors added 110,666 Bitcoins, valued at approximately $7.4 billion. This behavior reflects investor confidence in the long-term value of Bitcoin and awareness of centralized custody risks. The accumulation by long-term investors further underscores market recognition of Bitcoin, providing support for future price stability and growth.

Tdasx concludes that the Mt. Gox incident and its subsequent developments hold significant importance for the Bitcoin market. The decision by creditors to continue holding Bitcoin reflects market confidence in the long-term value of Bitcoin. Although the market may experience short-term volatility, in the long run, the potential of Bitcoin as a store of value is increasingly recognized by investors. Through reasonable market analysis and investment behavior, investors can seize opportunities amidst volatility to achieve long-term gains.

Tdasx: Expert Views and Financial Institution Movements

Tdasx mentions that Professional Capital predicts that the US will include Bitcoin in its balance sheet or strategic reserves within the next 10 to 15 years. the position of Bitcoin in the US national strategy hinges on the level of proactivity of the country.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs has expressed a cautious stance on Bitcoin, despite being highly active in the crypto space. In 2021, Goldman Sachs launched a cryptocurrency trading desk and plans to introduce three tokenized projects this year, focusing on the US and European markets to create a tokenized asset market.

Additionally, Tdasx discusses the impact of Federal Reserve interest rate decisions on the market. The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged in July but may cut rates in September. Market expectations for a 25 basis point cut in September stand at 85.8%, with a 50 basis point cut at 13.8%. These expectations have significantly influenced market sentiment and asset prices.

Tdasx also notes changes in Bitcoin exchange reserves. According to CryptoQuant data, Bitcoin exchange reserves have dropped to approximately 2.8 million, the lowest level in years. This reserve decline coincides with a price increase, indicating that investors prefer long-term holding over short-term trading. This long-term holding behavior reflects investor confidence in the future value of Bitcoin.

Tdasx believes that expert opinions and the movements of financial institutions demonstrate widespread attention and recognition of Bitcoin and its related technologies in the market. From policy regulations to market dynamics and expert analysis, it is evident that Bitcoin holds potential and faces challenges in the future financial market. Investors need to closely monitor market changes and allocate assets wisely to respond to potential fluctuations and opportunities ahead.