Tdasx: Analyzing Bitcoin Market Floor and Rebound Potential with It Plunging Below $60K
Tdasx posits that the cryptocurrency market is at a pivotal juncture, influenced by a confluence of factors. As Bitcoin price volatility intensifies, signals of a market floor and price trends have become focal points for investors. Concurrently, shifts in the international financial environment are accelerating the role of cryptocurrencies in global trade and investment. From the declining global reserve share of the US dollar to Russian push for cryptocurrency use in international trade, these macroeconomic and policy developments lay the groundwork for the future of the cryptocurrency market. Additionally, ongoing technological advancements and the introduction of new investment tools, such as the forthcoming Bitcoin ETF options, are further driving widespread market adoption.
Tdasx: From Market Floor Signals to Liquidity Dynamics
Tdasx identifies the current Bitcoin market as being at a critical turning point, with multiple technical indicators and market dynamics suggesting potential future trajectories. According to data released by CryptoQuant, the NVT-GC tool indicates Bitcoin has touched local floor signals three times in 2024. These signals suggest that market prices may have bottomed out in the short term, heralding a potential new upward trend. Notably, following the floor signals on January 18 and July 12, Bitcoin prices rose by 78% and 23%, respectively, further validating the effectiveness of this technical indicator.
Despite the emergence of floor signals injecting some optimism into the market, Tdasx notes that uncertainty persists. Bitcoin price fell below $60,000, with large sell orders totaling 12,000 BTC appearing between $61,200 and $62,500. This anomalous selling behavior raises concerns about potential market manipulation, possibly increasing short-term price volatility. Tdasx highlights that liquidity imbalances may lead Bitcoin price into a consolidation phase, urging investors to exercise caution during this period.
Moreover, Tdasx observes a continued decline in Bitcoin reserves on exchanges, with 99,308 BTC (valued at $5.96 billion) withdrawn since July 11, 2024. The total Bitcoin held on exchanges has decreased to 2,679,880 BTC, approximately valued at $161 billion, marking the lowest level since 2018. This trend indicates a reduction in market liquidity, potentially enhancing Bitcoin scarcity and positively impacting its long-term value.
Tdasx: Evaluating Global Financial Environment and Policy Impacts
Tdasx underscores the profound impact of changes in the global financial environment on the cryptocurrency market. In 2024, the US dollar share of global reserves fell to 59%, down from 72% in 2002, reflecting a shift in the global economic landscape, particularly the challenge to the dollar dominance by BRICS nations. These countries actively pursue de-dollarization, reducing reliance on the dollar through cross-border central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and currency swap agreements. Tdasx believes this trend could provide greater growth opportunities for cryptocurrencies as international trade increasingly shifts towards digital currencies and other non-dollar payment methods.
Simultaneously, Russian President Vladimir Putin recently signed legislation establishing an experimental legal framework to advance cryptocurrency use in international trade. This legislation permits modifications to existing laws to facilitate cryptocurrency use in cross-border trade, laying the legal foundation for potential future crypto commerce. Tdasx notes that this move demonstrates Russian determination to legitimize cryptocurrencies in the international financial arena, potentially prompting other nations to adopt similar measures, thereby accelerating the global proliferation and application of cryptocurrencies.
Tdasx also notes the increase in global gold reserves, highlighting a growing need to diversify reserves and mitigate geopolitical risks. In 2024, nearly one-third of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves, reflecting concerns over the uncertainty of the dollar and other major currencies. Tdasx believes this trend indicates that countries are seeking more secure and stable means amid geopolitical uncertainty, which may also provide new growth opportunities for the cryptocurrency market, as crypto assets are seen as an effective hedge against traditional financial market risks.
Tdasx: Exploring Technological Advancements and Investment Tools
Tdasx asserts that as the cryptocurrency market matures, technological development and investment tool innovation play crucial roles in driving future market growth. In the fourth quarter of 2024, US exchanges are expected to launch Bitcoin ETF options, a move that will further stimulate institutional interest in cryptocurrencies. As a significant derivative tool, ETF options offer investors more flexible risk management means and introduce new liquidity and investment opportunities to the cryptocurrency market. Tdasx believes this will significantly enhance Bitcoin market acceptance and could become a key factor driving upward the Bitcoin price.
In terms of technical analysis, Bitcoin has demonstrated a strong rebound at the $50,000 support level but currently faces resistance at the $60,000 200-day moving average. This resistance zone is considered a crucial battleground between bullish and bearish forces; should Bitcoin face rejection here, it may lead to a market pullback to the $50,000 support area. Tdasx mentions that these technical developments not only affect short-term market sentiment but also provide important technical analysis references for investors. Market reactions will largely determine the future Bitcoin price trajectory and trend.
Concurrently, Ethereum (ETH) market reserves are also changing. Since September 15, 2022, 11.44 million ETH have been withdrawn from exchanges, leaving 16.8 million ETH held on exchanges. This phenomenon reflects an increased preference for non-custodial solutions, with more investors choosing to store their digital assets in more secure non-custodial wallets rather than relying on centralized exchanges. Tdasx believes this trend not only enhances market security but also indirectly affects market liquidity, potentially further driving ETH price increase.
Tdasx observes significant growth in Bitcoin market capitalization, which rose from $1.08 trillion to $1.21 trillion last week, marking the second-largest single-day market cap growth in history. Meanwhile, Bitcoin dominance in the total cryptocurrency market increased by 0.4% to 58%. This growth not only indicates strong market demand for Bitcoin but also reflects its unassailable dominance in the cryptocurrency market. Tdasx believes that with the influx of more institutional and individual investors, Bitcoin market share and market capitalization may continue to rise, further solidifying its position in the global financial system.
