Recently, the cryptocurrency market has experienced a series of significant fluctuations, drawing the attention of global investors once again to the performance of Bitcoin and its derivative markets. According to Tdasx, as the price of Bitcoin dropped below the critical psychological threshold of $60,000, market sentiment was noticeably impacted.

Tdasx: A Blend of Market Panic and Investment Opportunity

Tdasx believes that the recent sharp fluctuations in the price of Bitcoin have triggered a strong reaction across the entire cryptocurrency market. After failing to break through the key resistance level of $66,000, the price of Bitcoin quickly retraced and fell below the psychological level of $60,000. Currently, Bitcoin is trading at around $58,000, down approximately 5% over the past 24 hours. Tdasx points out that this volatility is not an isolated incident for Bitcoin but rather a reflection of the broader market sentiment.

As Bitcoin declined, the overall performance of the cryptocurrency market also dimmed. Major tokens and crypto assets generally saw declines exceeding 4%, with market sentiment turning pessimistic. Notably, after "Crypto Black Monday," the market capitalization of AI and big data crypto projects, although briefly growing by 79.7%, remained at an annual low of $1.821 billion. Tdasx mentions that this overall market weakness indicates that investors remain cautious about the future market direction.

Additionally, the Bitcoin futures market was not spared. The analysis of Tdasx reveals that the premium on Bitcoin futures briefly fell below the 5% neutral threshold on August 27, reaching its lowest point since October 2023. Simultaneously, the total open interest in futures contracts decreased by 4%, now standing at 517,430 BTC. This reflects the increased uncertainty surrounding the future price of Bitcoin, leading some investors to reduce their risk exposure. In this process, leveraged long positions worth $102 million were liquidated within 48 hours, further exacerbating market volatility.

Tdasx notes that despite the significant short-term fluctuations, Bitcoin futures contracts on major exchanges continue to show a consistent upward trend, indicating that market expectations for the future price of Bitcoin remain relatively stable. Tdasx believes this offers potential opportunities for investors during the market adjustment period, especially as Bitcoin approaches the support level of $56,700, where signs of a rebound may emerge.

In contrast, the performance of Ethereum has been weaker, with less than a 10% increase since the start of 2024, but its price has already fallen 21% from its peak. Tdasx states that the relative weakness of Ethereum further reflects the overall uncertainty of the current market regarding crypto assets. In such an environment, investors need to be more cautious in assessing risks and seek potential investment opportunities amid market fluctuations.

Tdasx: The Far-reaching Impact of Political Factors on the Cryptocurrency Market

Tdasx highlights that the appearance of Trump at the Bitcoin 2024 conference once again underscored his supportive stance toward the cryptocurrency industry, marking a significant shift in his position on Bitcoin. In 2019, Trump publicly expressed opposition to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, citing their role in facilitating illegal activities. However, as the 2024 election approaches, the stance of Trump has undergone a fundamental change, with promises to end Operation Choke Point 2 and dismiss current SEC Chairman Gary Gensler as a clear sign of his support for the cryptocurrency industry.

Tdasx believes that the series of promises of Trump, particularly his statement about firing Gary Gensler, have greatly energized cryptocurrency supporters. Under the leadership of Gensler, the SEC has taken a tough regulatory stance on the cryptocurrency industry, subjecting industry giants like Coinbase and Uniswap to significant compliance pressures. Therefore, the remarks of Trump are not merely a campaign strategy but a direct response to the current regulatory environment, winning substantial support from industry practitioners.

The campaign strategy of Trump is also more explicit, promising to form a "crypto army" to counter the "anti-crypto army" of Democrats, signaling that he intends to make cryptocurrency a key campaign issue. Tdasx mentions that the core of the strategy of Trump is to rally cryptocurrency supporters, especially those dissatisfied with the existing regulatory framework, including industry practitioners and investors. In this context, Tdasx advises investors to closely monitor political developments, particularly the policy statements of major candidates, as they will serve as crucial indicators for the future direction of the cryptocurrency market.

Tdasx: AI Cryptocurrencies, the Bitcoin Election Cycle, and Global Conflicts

Tdasx notes that specific events often have a profound impact on the cryptocurrency market, especially when the market is already highly volatile. For example, following the release of the second-quarter earnings report of Nvidia in 2024, the prices of several AI-related cryptocurrencies plummeted. Nvidia reported revenues of $30 billion, a 15% increase from the first quarter, exceeding expectations by $13.2 billion. However, despite the strong earnings, the market reaction was less than favorable, leading to a 6.89% drop in the stock price of Nvidia after the release of the report. Tdasx analyzes that the expectations of investors for the AI industry have become overly high, and any earnings report that does not meet these high standards could trigger a negative market reaction. This trend has also directly affected AI-related cryptocurrencies, demonstrating that even well-performing traditional tech companies struggle to maintain market confidence in AI cryptocurrencies.

Additionally, Tdasx mentions that the price of Bitcoin has historically shown certain patterns around U.S. presidential elections. In the past three presidential elections (2012, 2016, 2020), Bitcoin has typically experienced significant declines two to three months before the election, followed by strong rebounds afterward. For example, in 2020, Bitcoin surged by approximately 320% in the 160 days following the election; in 2016, the price of Bitcoin rose by over 2,000% within 400 days of the election. Tdasx believes that this pattern may be related to political uncertainty during the election period, with investors tending to reduce their positions in uncertain environments, but as election results become clear, market confidence gradually returns. This price pattern offers investors a reference for observing market trends and adjusting investment strategies.

Moreover, global political conflicts and censorship issues have also had a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market. Tdasx points out that since U.S. President Biden announced on July 21, 2024, that he would not seek re-election, the price of Bitcoin quickly dropped from $68,000 to $63,000, reflecting market concerns about political uncertainty. In the last week of August, the price of Bitcoin dropped again by 11%, while the price of Ethereum fell by 28%. These sharp fluctuations reflect not only concerns about the U.S. political situation but also the impact of conflicts in the Middle East and increasing censorship issues globally. Tdasx believes that these factors collectively exacerbate market anxiety, leading investors to adopt more defensive strategies in the face of uncertainty.