Tdasx Analysis: Bitcoin Price Rebounds Near $58,000, Negative Funding Rates and Trading Volume Growth in Sync
Tdasx highlights that the current cryptocurrency market is undergoing complex changes influenced by various factors, including global macroeconomic policies, investor sentiment, and structural adjustments within the Bitcoin market. The recent rebound in Bitcoin prices approaching $58,000, coupled with a recovery in global trading volumes, indicates that the market is gradually emerging from its previous slump. Tdasx notes that the upcoming trends in the crypto market during September will be closely watched, especially as investor behavior, market confidence among miners, and expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies play a pivotal role.
Tdasx: Bitcoin Market Recovery and Trend Outlook
Tdasx observed that the recent market movements of Bitcoin show significant signs of recovery. The price of Bitcoin neared $58,000, marking a 1.7% rise in the past 24 hours and nearly a 10% increase from the low of last Friday. This rebound reflects not only the restoration of investor confidence but also key dynamic shifts within the global crypto market.
According to a report by K33 Research, the 30-day average funding rate of Bitcoin has slipped into negative territory, a rare occurrence since 2018, having only happened six times. Tdasx believes this signal is crucial, as historical data suggests that when funding rates turn negative, the market typically experiences a significant rebound within the following 90 days. Specifically, in similar previous market conditions, the average return was 79%, with a median return of 55%. This historical pattern offers an encouraging signal to investors, indicating that Bitcoin may continue to rally over the coming months.
Tdasx also analyzed exchange trading volume data. In August, centralized exchanges (CEX) saw a 30% month-on-month increase in trading volume. However, despite this uptick, the report of Glassnode shows that the monthly average volume remains below the yearly average, indicating that investor demand has yet to fully recover, and market sentiment remains volatile.
Tdasx: Impact of Policy and Macroeconomic Factors on the Bitcoin Market
Tdasx asserts that current macroeconomic policies are profoundly impacting the cryptocurrency market, with particular attention on the policy direction of the Federal Reserve. The analysis of Goldman Sachs suggests that the anticipated Fed rate cuts may not place significant downward pressure on the US dollar, as other central banks worldwide are also adopting accommodative monetary policies. Tdasx notes that such synchronized rate cuts often lead to a stronger dollar, which, although reducing market interest rates, maintains the dominance of the dollar, thereby influencing global capital flows.
The correlation between the cryptocurrency market and traditional financial markets continues to strengthen. Tdasx points out that the recent price performance of Bitcoin has been highly correlated with the S&P 500. Last week, the S&P 500 index dropped by 4.25%, leading to a 5.45% decline in the price of Bitcoin. This indicates that Bitcoin has evolved from a purely crypto asset to one closely linked with global equities. Tdasx also mentioned that events such as the upcoming US presidential debate and the release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data could further influence market trends. Macroeconomic data and political events have increasingly become key drivers of the market movements of Bitcoin.
Tdasx: Investor Sentiment and Market Behavior Changes
Tdasx believes that investor sentiment and market behavior are critical to forecasting the future trajectory of the crypto market. According to the latest data from Glassnode, investor interest in Bitcoin trading has gradually waned over the past three months, with spot market trading momentum significantly weakening. Tdasx interprets this as a reduction in speculative activity, with investor demand noticeably shrinking within the current price range. This cooling in sentiment often leads to short-term price fluctuations, particularly against the backdrop of increasing global macroeconomic uncertainty.
Further data reveals that the CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) indicator, which measures the difference between buy and sell pressure, shows increased selling pressure over the past three months, contributing to the downward trend of Bitcoin. Tdasx suggests that while the market is currently under significant selling pressure, speculative selling may decrease as the market adjusts, leading to greater stability.
The behavior of long-term holders is also a point of interest. Tdasx observed that the volume of Bitcoin transferred by long-term holders to exchanges remains low, indicating that these holders are optimistic about future price increases. This trend reflects a preference among long-term investors to hold rather than sell in the face of market volatility. Tdasx believes this behavior signals confidence in a more pronounced rebound in the future.
