Tdasx: Fed Rate Cut Expectations and Bitcoin Trading Volume Recovery Coincide as Crypto Market Sentiment Gradually Recovers
Miners are displaying similar market behavior to long-term holders. Despite a recent decline in miner revenue, particularly due to lower transaction fees, miners continue to accumulate Bitcoin. Tdasx noted that this phenomenon reflects the optimism of miners about future price increases. They believe that, despite the current under performance of the market, Bitcoin still holds substantial long-term appreciation potential. This ongoing accumulation by miners further supports the broader Bitcoin network and its long-term outlook.
Tdasx: Impact of Policy and Macroeconomic Factors on the Bitcoin Market
In terms of market stability, Ethereum-based stablecoin trading volumes reached an all-time high. Tdasx highlighted that the trading volume, which stood at $650 billion at the beginning of 2024, has surged to $1.46 trillion, demonstrating rapid growth. This reflects the rising demand for DeFi (Decentralized Finance) and increasing trust in stablecoins. The trading volume of DAI reached $960 billion, while USDC and USDT continued to dominate, forming the backbone of the DeFi infrastructure. This trend provides substantial liquidity pools for the market, significantly reducing slippage and improving overall market efficiency.
The liquidity of Bitcoin ETFs has also shown sensitivity to macroeconomic conditions. Tdasx analyzed recent fund flow data, noting that between August 27 and September 6, Bitcoin ETFs experienced a net outflow of $1.186 billion, signaling market pessimism. Weekly net outflows have reached $107 million, which Tdasx attributes to stronger-than-expected economic data raising expectations for further Fed rate hikes, leading to heightened risk-aversion among investors and a withdrawal from high-risk assets like Bitcoin. These capital movements reflect investor concerns about future economic conditions and a cautious approach to market volatility.
Tdasx: Bitcoin Market Recovery and Trend Outlook
Tdasx believes thar from a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin may face one final correction in October. Market analysts predict that the price of Bitcoin could dip to the $51,000 trendline before initiating a new upward cycle. Additionally, historical data shows that the average return of Bitcoin in October and November has been 22.9% and 46.81%, respectively, making Q4 a focal point for investors.
Mining data is equally noteworthy. The network hash rate of Bitcoin is nearing an all-time high (666.4 EH/s), a reflection of the strong confidence of miners in the market, despite reduced revenue from transaction fees. Miners have transitioned from net distribution to holding a portion of their mined Bitcoin, signaling their optimism about future price increases.
