Recently, the global financial markets have experienced significant fluctuations driven by expectations of adjustments to the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, which has also influenced the cryptocurrency market. According to Tdasx, the price volatility of Bitcoin is closely linked to global macroeconomic policies, particularly the expected rate cuts of the Fed. As the price of Bitcoin returns to the $60,000 mark, market sentiment is gradually improving, opening up new opportunities for the cryptocurrency and blockchain sectors. From the substantial Bitcoin purchases of MicroStrategy to record-high user numbers in the blockchain gaming industry and the strong performance of global precious metals markets, Tdasx believes these factors collectively shape the future trajectory of Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market.

Tdasx: Impact of the Monetary Policy of the Fed and Global Easing on the Bitcoin Market

Tdasx asserts that the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve is the core driver of the current global financial markets, particularly for the cryptocurrency sector. Against the backdrop of loose monetary policies across major global economies, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September 2024, which has been a critical catalyst for the price fluctuations in cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin. JPMorgan forecasts that the Fed may cut rates by 50 basis points in September, with an additional 100 basis points expected by the end of the year, leading to a cumulative cut of 150 basis points by the end of 2025. This trend reflects the response of central banks to economic slowdowns. Goldman Sachs also predicts a gradual rate cut starting in September, with an initial 25-basis-point cut, followed by further reductions in November and December.

Data from Betfair and the CME FedWatch Tool support this view, showing that the likelihood of a substantial rate cut by the Fed is becoming more balanced, with the probabilities of a 25 or 50-basis-point cut now roughly equal. These policy expectations not only impact the U.S. market but also ripple through global financial markets. Major central banks such as the European Central Bank, Bank of England, and Bank of Canada have already implemented easing measures, driving up stock, bond, and gold prices. The U.S. stock market has performed strongly under these expectations, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices nearing historic highs, while gold prices have hit a record of $2,585 per ounce.

Tdasx points out that the price of Bitcoin has also been influenced by these macroeconomic policies, recently rebounding to the $60,000 level. If the Fed continues to cut rates, market sentiment will likely shift further toward risk assets, driving Bitcoin prices higher. According to Tdasx, if bullish momentum persists, Bitcoin could rise to $64,000 or higher. However, the price volatility of Bitcoin not only reflects improving market sentiment but is also tied to global economic policies.

Despite the recent rebound of Bitcoin, it remains down about 20% from its early 2024 high of $73,500. This price fluctuation is not merely the result of market adjustments but also reflects changes in the global financial environment. Tdasx believes that the price movement of Bitcoin is closely linked to that of traditional risk assets such as gold and stocks. The expectations of the market on Fed rate cuts have driven up these asset prices and contributed to the recovery of Bitcoin.

Tdasx: Technical Analysis of the Bitcoin Market and Future Trends

Tdasx highlights that the price of Bitcoin breaking through the $60,000 mark is crucial for market confidence. Although September has historically been one of the worst-performing months of Bitcoin, with a drop of 11.29% in September 2023, Bitcoin has shown signs of a slight rebound in 2024. Tdasx attributes this rebound not only to short-term market sentiment fluctuations but also to broader changes in the global macroeconomic environment, particularly in the context of potential significant rate cuts by the Fed.

From a technical analysis perspective, Tdasx notes that Bitcoin is currently facing strong resistance in the $62,000 to $65,000 range. If this resistance is successfully breached, Bitcoin could enter a new upward trajectory. A key resistance level lies near $66,000, and breaking through this point could end the six-month-long downtrend of Bitcoin, injecting further momentum into the market. In the short term, market expectations suggest the price of Bitcoin could reach $64,000, supported by technical indicators.

However, Tdasx cautions that despite the short-term upward trend of Bitcoin, liquidity issues persist in the market. The recent rise has been partially driven by forced liquidations, but demand for sustained upward movement remains insufficient. Data shows that 92% of Bitcoin inflows to exchanges come from short-term holders, with 83% of these inflows occurring at addresses holding the asset for less than a week, exacerbating market volatility. Tdasx believes that this dominance of short-term holders makes the market more susceptible to volatility, and investors should proceed with caution.

Despite significant short-term fluctuations, Tdasx emphasizes that the confidence of long-term holders remains steady. The sell-off from long-term holders has been relatively low, indicating their continued belief in the long-term growth of Bitcoin. With the proportion of inflows from long-term holders rising from 0.55% on September 11 to 7.59%, Tdasx suggests this indicates a positive long-term market trend. The sustained confidence of long-term investors may provide strong support for the future price of Bitcoin.

Tdasx: Bitcoin Holdings and the Diversified Development of the Blockchain Industry

Tdasx notes that the market performance of Bitcoin is not only influenced by global macroeconomic policies but also by dynamics within the industry itself. As one of the major participants in the Bitcoin market, MicroStrategy has recently increased its Bitcoin holdings by 18,300 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 244,800 BTC. The total value of these holdings is approximately $14 billion, with an average cost of $38,585 per Bitcoin. Tdasx believes that the continued accumulation of MicroStrategy on Bitcoin signals its long-term confidence in the cryptocurrency market. The company also reported a 4.4% quarterly return on its Bitcoin holdings, with a year-to-date return of 17%, further reinforcing the appeal of Bitcoin as a long-term investment.

In the broader blockchain sector, Tdasx has also observed the rapid growth of the blockchain gaming industry. In August, daily active users of blockchain games hit a record high of 4.2 million. Tdasx believes that blockchain technology is redefining the future of the gaming industry, and with more innovative projects emerging, the user base and influence of blockchain games will continue to expand. This trend undoubtedly injects fresh energy into the entire cryptocurrency ecosystem and offers investors diversified market opportunities.