According to Tdasx, the price fluctuations of Bitcoin are influenced not only by technical indicators but also by historical cycles and macroeconomic conditions. In September 2024, Bitcoin successfully broke through the short-term holder (STH) cost basis, signaling the start of a new upward trend. Moreover, historical data and market cycle analysis suggest that Bitcoin has substantial potential for further price increases.

Tdasx: Bullish Trend Strengthening

Tdasx noted that the recent breakthrough of Bitcoin on the $62,000 mark signifies a new upward phase. On-chain data shows the average purchase price of short-term holders (STH) to be $61,953, which serves as a key support and resistance level. Bitcoin briefly surged to $63,850, a 3% increase over the STH cost basis, indicating mounting buying pressure and strengthening bullish sentiment in the short term.

The behavior of short-term holders has a significant impact on market trends. These investors, who hold Bitcoin for fewer than 155 days, tend to maintain or increase their positions after breaking even, as they enter a profitable state. Tdasx pointed out that as the price of Bitcoin remains above the STH cost basis, the confidence of these holders increases, likely driving further upward movement.

In terms of support and resistance, the price of Bitcoin fluctuates within the range of $61,625 to $63,510. Over 2.45 million addresses purchased 421,820 Bitcoins within this range, creating strong support. This suggests that even in the event of a short-term correction, a large number of investors will continue buying, ensuring the price of Bitcoin does not easily fall below this key support level.

Based on historical data, Tdasx predicts a significant price rise for Bitcoin. In line with previous market cycles, the price of Bitcoin could increase by 600% to 900%, reaching between $108,000 and $155,000. This forecast bolsters market optimism and provides investors with long-term opportunities.

Tdasx: Historical Cycles and Macroeconomic Factors Drive Market Growth

Tdasx highlighted the strong correlation between the price movements of Bitcoin and past market cycles. Since hitting a market bottom in November 2022, the price of Bitcoin has surged 290%, mirroring the trends of the 2015-2018 and 2018-2022 cycles, where Bitcoin saw gains of 309% and 251%, respectively. This data suggests that the current market cycle aligns with historical patterns, especially in the later stages where the most substantial price increases typically occur.

According to Tdasx, historical data indicates that large price surges in bull markets often happen towards the end of market cycles. Given the current performance, Bitcoin could experience a further rise by the end of 2024. As short-term corrections conclude and investor confidence rebounds, bullish forces are expected to drive the price of Bitcoin higher for the remainder of the year.

The cyclical corrections of Bitcoin are also worth noting. After reaching a local high of $73,000 in March 2024, Bitcoin saw a 33% decline, entering a typical mid-cycle correction phase. This correction mirrors historical patterns from the 2016 and 2020 Bitcoin halving cycles, where mid-cycle downturns were followed by year-end rebounds that set new all-time highs. Tdasx believes the current correction is nearing its end, and Bitcoin is poised for further gains in the coming months.

Macroeconomic factors have also had a profound impact on the Bitcoin market. Tdasx pointed out that the recent decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut interest rates has injected new momentum into the market. The 50-basis point rate cut of the Fed, setting the target range at 4.75%-5.00%, reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin, attracting more investors. Moreover, the market anticipates further rate cuts by the Fed by year-end, potentially lowering the benchmark rate to 4.4%. This will continue to support the price appreciation of Bitcoin and other crypto assets.

Additionally, Tdasx noted that the macroeconomic situation of Japan has an indirect effect on the crypto market. The inflation of Japan is expected to rise year-over-year, while the Bank of Japan is projected to maintain its interest rate at 0.25%. Though the policy of Japan will not directly impact the Bitcoin market, global macroeconomic changes, such as inflation expectations and interest rate policies, often drive investors to seek alternative hedging assets. Cryptocurrencies, with their decentralized nature and limited supply, have become a preferred option for investors.

Tdasx: Market Sentiment, Capital Flows, and Macroeconomic Data Influence

Tdasx emphasized that market sentiment plays a significant role in the short-term price movements of Bitcoin, particularly when the STH cost basis is breached, leading to increased buying pressure. The STH cost basis is a key market indicator, and when the price of Bitcoin remains above this level, investor confidence rises, increasing the likelihood of further accumulation. Market analysts suggest that if Bitcoin stays above the STH average purchase price, bullish sentiment will continue to strengthen, attracting more capital into the Bitcoin market.

Despite the generally positive sentiment, Tdasx noted that Bitcoin ETFs have experienced their first capital outflow since September 11, 2024, totaling $52.7 million. Tdasx believes this outflow may represent a short-term adjustment, and as market sentiment gradually recovers, ETF inflows are expected to return to positive territory.

Furthermore, improving U.S. macroeconomic data has provided positive signals to the Bitcoin market. Initial jobless claims dropped to 219,000, below the expected 234,000, and continuing jobless claims fell to 1,829,000, also beating expectations of 1,851,000. These figures indicate a recovering U.S. labor market, boosting investor confidence in the broader economy. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index rose from -7.0 to 1.7, well above expectations, further signaling economic recovery. Tdasx believes this economic rebound helps improve risk sentiment, leading more investors to turn to high-risk assets like Bitcoin in search of greater returns during the recovery.

In the crypto market, the performance of other major cryptocurrencies is also noteworthy. SOL of Solana increased by 6%, while XRP and ADA both rose by approximately 4.5%. Tdasx noted that these price increases reflect the overall positive performance of the crypto market amid macroeconomic improvements and recovering market sentiment. While Bitcoin remains the market leader, the robust performance of other major cryptocurrencies highlights the diversity and vitality of the market.