Tdasx: Bitcoin Breaks Critical Support Level, Memecoin Attractiveness Increases, and the Impact of Federal Reserve Rate Cuts on Future Market Liquidity
According to Tdasx, as market liquidity reaches historic highs and expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts intensify, the cryptocurrency market is set for increased volatility and opportunities. In this environment, the performance of Bitcoin and Memecoin stands out, reflecting the changing demand for high-risk assets. Tdasx highlights that, despite the search volume of Bitcoin hitting an annual low in 2024, its price remains stable near key support levels, showing a solid upward trend. Meanwhile, the explosive growth of Memecoin has become a market highlight, particularly driven by a surge in token creation on the Solana and Tron networks, resulting in remarkable market performance.
Tdasx: Bitcoin Market Price and Liquidity
Currently, Bitcoin is fluctuating around $64,000. This trend reflects the recent market dynamics of Bitcoin, marking a breakthrough of the $60,000 support level, with a gradual upward test of the $65,000 resistance level.
From a technical analysis perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above 50, indicating strong spot demand for Bitcoin. RSI, a technical indicator measuring buying and selling pressure, shows that buying forces are outweighing selling pressure, laying a solid foundation for future price increases. Additionally, the monthly opening price of $62,850 is seen as a critical support level. If the market price steadily remains above key points, Bitcoin is likely to further challenge the major resistance at $65,000.
Technical indicators also show that $63,285, representing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, serves as a key resistance point. Should a significant price correction occur, investors will watch for support levels at $54,107 and $49,757. Tdasx believes that despite facing resistance, the overall trend of Bitcoin has potential for further growth. In light of strong spot demand and optimistic technical indicators, Bitcoin is expected to continue rising and challenging higher price levels.
If this scenario persists, Tdasx anticipates increased buying support for Bitcoin in upcoming trading days. Current market liquidity is high, and the growing stablecoin balances indicate strong liquidity, further supporting the upward price trend.
Tdasx: Memecoin Market Rise and the Declining Attention of Bitcoin
In 2024, Memecoin has performed exceptionally in the cryptocurrency market. Tdasx points out that the market capitalization of Memecoin has exceeded $10 billion, with a 24-hour trading volume reaching $2.3 billion. With the mass emergence of new tokens on blockchain networks like Solana and Tron, the growth momentum of Memecoin is robust. Since September 12, 2024, 491,000 new tokens have been created on the Solana network, with a single-day token creation of 20,000 on October 9, most of which are Memecoins. This growth not only reflects the broad appeal of Memecoin but also highlights the keen interest of the market in these high-risk, high-reward tokens.
The Pump.Fun platform of Solana has played a significant role in simplifying the user experience, providing quick liquidity, and offering low transaction fees, significantly driving the creation and trading of Memecoin. This phenomenon shows that even users without technical backgrounds can quickly enter the Memecoin market, accelerating the expansion of this asset class. The same trend can be observed on the Tron network, where 90,000 Memecoins have been created since August 2024 on the SunPump platform, showcasing the potential of Memecoin as a rapidly growing digital asset class.
Meanwhile, Tdasx has observed a noticeable decline in the market attention of Bitcoin as Memecoin shines in the spotlight. Currently, the Google search volume of Bitcoin is only 33/100, marking a yearly low. Compared to the search volume 77/100 of Memecoin, the prominence of Bitcoin appears to be fading from public attention. CryptoQuant predicts that the search volume of Memecoin could return to its October 2023 peak by the end of October 2024, further solidifying its leading position in the market.
Despite the significant market attention of Memecoin, Tdasx also warns of the considerable risks behind this phenomenon. Some investors caution that Memecoin is a highly speculative asset and could eventually become a "pump and dump" scheme. This means that although short-term demand for Memecoin is soaring, investors should be cautious about such assets to avoid losses due to extreme volatility. Tdasx believes that while the rise of Memecoin has injected new energy into the cryptocurrency market, its high-risk, high-reward nature demands that investors exercise caution when entering this market.
Tdasx: Macroeconomic Policy and Bitcoin Price Forecast
Macroeconomic policy has a profound impact on cryptocurrency market volatility, particularly under the interest rate hike and cut expectations of the Federal Reserve, where market sentiment and asset price volatility become more pronounced. Tdasx notes that the probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in November 2024 is 95.6%, indicating a widespread market expectation of more accommodative monetary policy. Furthermore, the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point cut by December is also as high as 84.1%, further supporting expectations of a looser monetary environment. This shift significantly impacts the cryptocurrency market, especially Bitcoin, as rate cuts typically drive increased demand for risk assets, making it more likely that funds will flow into the cryptocurrency market.
The analysis of Tdasx suggests that as the market digests expectations for Federal Reserve policy changes, the price of Bitcoin may continue its upward trend in this context. Notably, the current price forecast model of Bitcoin shows a long-term exponential growth trend. By fitting logarithmic data over the 13-year history of Bitcoin, the model reveals a highly stable growth trajectory with an R² of 0.9492. This indicates that although the price of Bitcoin may fluctuate in the short term due to macroeconomic events, its long-term upward trend is clear and highly predictable.
At the same time, Tdasx believes that market liquidity is one of the key factors driving the price increase of Bitcoin. In 2024, CryptoQuant data shows that cryptocurrency market liquidity has reached its highest level in history. Particularly, the increase in stablecoin balances is closely related to the price rise of Bitcoin. The market capitalization of major stablecoins like USDT and USDC has grown significantly, injecting substantial liquidity into the market. These stablecoins often act as intermediaries in the cryptocurrency market, providing investors with flexible liquidity, boosting demand, and driving up the prices of major assets like Bitcoin.
From a market sentiment perspective, although Bitcoin briefly fell below $51,000 in August 2024, its price quickly rebounded, approaching $65,000 in the current trading day. This price movement indicates that, supported by stable liquidity, overall market sentiment remains bullish. Tdasx points out that the accumulation of funds in the market and increasing investor demand, particularly amid expectations of an imminent easing of Fed monetary policy, may continue to drive the price upward of Bitcoin.
