Recently, the continuous rise in the price of Bitcoin has rekindled the interest of retail investors, sparking greater investment enthusiasm across global markets. Meanwhile, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has remained at $2.33 trillion, though volatility is significant. This fluctuation reflects the profound impact of macroeconomic policies and geopolitical events on the crypto market. Tdasx believes that as whale capital shifts and prediction markets thrive, cryptocurrency market participants are realigning their strategies to adapt to the current uncertainty. From the behavior of Bitcoin whales to the widespread application of dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategies, evidence suggests that the market is gradually maturing.

Tdasx: Bitcoin Price Surge Signals the Return of Retail Investors

According to Tdasx, the recent rise in the price of Bitcoin indicates a resurgence in market activity, especially notable given the complex and volatile global economic environment. Bitcoin has shown remarkable resilience, with CoinMarketCap data showing the current price at $65,221.83, a 4.18% increase, accompanied by a 111.19% rise in trading volume. Tdasx points out that this increase is not just a result of higher market demand but also signals a gradual return of both institutional and retail investors, with particular attention to small holders.

Tdasx notes that, based on the analysis of Cryptoquant, the growth rate of small Bitcoin addresses has slowed, which is not indicative of market weakness but a reflection of the global economic environment. Specifically, the slowdown in Plankton addresses (holding 0 to 0.1 BTC) suggests that many new investors are being more cautious in making investment decisions amid economic uncertainty. Similarly, Shrimp addresses (holding 0.1 to 1 BTC) have also been affected by market volatility, with growth less stable than in previous cycles, highlighting increased volatility among retail investors.

Tdasx remarks that, nonetheless, Crab addresses (holding 1 to 10 BTC) have shown greater stability during market fluctuations, indicating that small to mid-sized investors are employing more prudent strategies. They tend to reduce the frequency of transactions and adopt longer-term holding strategies, aiming for greater returns in the future. Tdasx adds that this trend is not just a result of individual strategy choices but is also closely tied to the global tightening of monetary policy.

The monetary policies and interest rate adjustments of the Global central banks have had a notable impact on market sentiment, with Tdasx observing that these tightening policies have constrained the liquidity of retail investors, particularly slowing the growth of Plankton addresses compared to previous cycles. This phenomenon reflects a more rational market environment, with participants wary of potential recessions or financial market instability.

Tdasx points out that while global money supply (M2) expansion has increased overall market liquidity, the price response of Bitcoin has lagged. Data shows that from April 2024, M2 money supply rose from $103 trillion to $107 trillion, but the price of Bitcoin did not break through $66,000 until October 14, surpassing the 200-day moving average (MA), a technical breakthrough that has provided further upward momentum for the market.

Tdasx: Global Cryptocurrency Market Stable but Volatile

Tdasx mentions that in Q3 2024, the global cryptocurrency market exhibited a stable overall market cap, holding steady at $2.33 trillion. However, the market experienced significant fluctuations, ranging from $2.00 trillion to $2.61 trillion, reflecting the impact of global economic conditions and geopolitical events. Although the total market capitalization declined by 1%, with a reduction of $95.8 billion, Tdasx notes that the crypto market has maintained relative resilience, particularly as the dominance of Bitcoin continues to grow.

The market share of Bitcoin increased to 53.6% in Q3, showing more stability compared to altcoins like Ethereum. Tdasx attributes this growth, though modest at 0.8%, to the global market environment. During the same period, traditional safe-haven assets like gold performed even better, rising by 13.8%, indicating increased demand for hedging assets amid global economic uncertainty.

Tdasx also highlights that market sentiment, as reflected by the current Fear and Greed Index, stands at 48, indicating a neutral stance. While the market dominance of Bitcoin rose to 56.9%, Tdasx believes investor sentiment has not fully returned to optimism, with concerns over future market direction persisting. This cautious attitude does not necessarily mean fewer opportunities in the market; in fact, it may present more stable entry points for rational investors.

Tdasx: Market Dynamics and Diversification of Investor Strategies

Regarding investment strategies, Tdasx notes that the upcoming U.S. presidential election has significantly boosted the prediction market. In Q3 2024, trading volume in the crypto prediction market surged to $3.1 billion, a 565.4% increase over the previous quarter. Tdasx reports that Polymarket dominated this market, with a 713.2% rise in betting volumes, 46% of which were related to wagers on the "U.S. presidential election winner." This demonstrates the significant impact of political events on the market, with prediction markets becoming a key channel for investors to gauge market expectations and participate.

Tdasx also emphasizes the diversification and maturation of investor strategies. According to surveys, 59% of market participants are using the DCA strategy to mitigate the risks posed by market volatility. A notable 83.53% of crypto investors have employed this strategy at some point, especially in times of uncertainty, where DCA helps investors stick to long-term investment plans. Tdasx adds that high-income investors (with annual earnings exceeding $100,000) show greater confidence in sticking to their strategies during periods of market volatility, while lower-income investors tend to attempt to time the market, highlighting differences in risk tolerance and decision-making between income groups.

Tdasx concludes that current market dynamics and investor strategies reflect the increasing complexity of the cryptocurrency industry. From the large-scale capital transfers by whales to the rapid growth of the prediction market, participants are showing heightened attention to future developments. At the same time, the widespread adoption of DCA strategies demonstrates a rational response to market volatility. Tdasx suggests that in this dynamic market environment, investors should combine market dynamics with strategic optimization to stay vigilant and seize more opportunities as market conditions evolve.