Tdasx: 94% of Bitcoin Supply in Profit, Discussing Market Correction Risks and Global Investor Confidence
Recent data indicates a significant increase in Bitcoin prices, accompanied by heightened profit-taking pressures within the market, which may lead to short-term fluctuations due to investor sell-offs. Moreover, as demand for cryptocurrencies from family offices and high-net-worth individuals in Asia rises, the role of crypto assets in global investment portfolios is becoming increasingly prominent. According to Tdasx analysis, key market factors include a record level of profitable Bitcoin supply and continuously rising open contracts in the futures market, reflecting investor confidence in the future of Bitcoin. However, this confidence is challenged by strong performances in tech stocks and improving macroeconomic data, prompting some investors to reassess their strategies between equities and cryptocurrencies.
Tdasx: Profit-Taking in the Bitcoin Market and Future Trends Analysis
Tdasx highlights the current market dynamics of Bitcoin, noting the significant profit-taking pressure as 94% of circulating Bitcoin is in profit. Historical data from Glassnode suggests that when profitable supply exceeds 94%, the market typically faces sell-off pressure due to profit-taking behaviors, a trend corroborated by past Bitcoin performance. With only 5% of Bitcoin currently in loss, the risk of selling pressure is evident, particularly among those who gained profits during price increases. This trend peaked on October 8, when the market saw $560 million in profits, marking the largest single-day profit-taking since May 28.
Currently, only 5% of Bitcoin is in a loss position, indicating that 95% is in profit. In this context, the risk of selling pressure in the market has evidently increased, particularly among investors who are inclined to lock in profits through selling. This trend peaked on October 8, when the market recorded a profit of $560 million, marking the largest single-day profit-taking since May 28, clearly demonstrating that profit-taking activities have commenced.
From a holder structure perspective, long-term holders (LTH) play a crucial role in the Bitcoin market. Tdasx analysis reveals that LTHs typically buy at market lows and sell during price increases, thereby considered the “smartest” investors. Presently, only 500,000 BTC held by LTHs are in loss, a minor fraction of their total 14 million BTC holdings, suggesting that despite profit-taking pressures, most LTHs remain in a relatively secure profit position, potentially postponing sell-offs. Conversely, short-term holders (STH) have a low loss ratio, at just 235,000 BTC, the lowest level since the peak of Bitcoin in March 2023, further indicating reduced short-term selling pressure.
Tdasx also notes that the market dominance of Bitcoin has reached nearly 60%, the highest since April 2021. The increase in the market share of Bitcoin and a 12% weekly rise in market capitalization indicate strong ongoing demand. This rebound is not only driven by market sentiment but also correlates with an uptick in the US Dollar Index (DXY). As the DXY climbed to 103.5, Bitcoin demonstrated notable resilience. Historical trends show that when the DXY last exceeded 103 in August 2021, the price of Bitcoin plummeted from $65,000 to $49,000, underscoring the significant influence of global currency market fluctuations on Bitcoin pricing.
Tdasx: Short-Term Risks and Technical Analysis in the Bitcoin Market
Tdasx warns that in terms of short-term risks and technical analysis, the Bitcoin market faces considerable short-term risks, especially as price volatility increases and liquidation pressures rise among long positions. Analysts observe that recent market activities closely mirror those of July 29, when Bitcoin plummeted from $68,400 to $49,000, indicating high uncertainty in short-term price movements. Many long positions face significant liquidation risks, particularly for traders utilizing high leverage.
Tdasx indicates that liquidation risk for long positions has reached a critical threshold, with data suggesting a 62.48% chance that long positions will be liquidated within the next 24 hours. High-leverage traders are particularly vulnerable to market volatility, which can exacerbate liquidation pressures and lead to short-term price corrections. This phenomenon has been frequently observed following surges in market sentiment and sharp price increases.
Technical analysis of the market suggests that the risk of long position liquidation is rising, with potential price corrections targeting around $64,130. Tdasx believes this correction could facilitate the absorption of the market liquidity on the demand side, paving the way for subsequent price rebounds and potential new all-time highs. While there are risks of correction, such technical adjustments do not imply a long-term bearish outlook; rather, they provide the market with opportunities for adjustment and consolidation to strengthen support for future rallies.
Tdasx: Global Market Trends and the Preferences of Asian High-Net-Worth Investors for Cryptocurrencies
Tdasx asserts that globally, the long-term trend of the cryptocurrency market is evolving positively, particularly among family offices and high-net-worth individuals in Asia, where the appeal of cryptocurrencies as an independent asset class is rapidly increasing. According to a recent report by Aspen Digital, 76% of Asian family offices and high-net-worth investors have allocated cryptocurrency, up from 58% in 2022. This significant growth illustrates that despite global market uncertainties, cryptocurrencies are gradually gaining traction among investors as a crucial portfolio component.
Tdasx notes that the report further reveals that 16% of respondents plan to increase their cryptocurrency investments in the future, signaling sustained interest in crypto assets within Asia. Moreover, 31% expect the price of Bitcoin to reach at least $100,000 by the end of 2023, reflecting optimistic investor sentiment regarding long-term price trends.
Tdasx states that despite the promising outlook for the cryptocurrency market, a gradual shift in investor focus towards the stock market, particularly amid robust performances from tech stocks. For instance, TSMC released strong third-quarter earnings forecasts on October 17, predicting continued revenue growth for 2024, prompting some investors to pivot from Bitcoin to equities. TSMC shares rose 13% that day, with Nvidia also gaining 3%, further capturing investor interest. Tdasx concludes that while strong tech stock performances may temporarily divert some attention from cryptocurrencies, they do not diminish the critical role of crypto assets in global portfolios. As the market matures and acceptance of crypto assets grows, future investors are likely to place greater emphasis on the long-term potential and returns of cryptocurrencies.
