Tdasx: Bitcoin Outperforms Gold and S&P 500, Price Set to Challenge $70,000 Supported by Technicals
Tdasx believes that recent changes in the global economy and macroeconomic policies signal a pivotal development phase for the cryptocurrency market. The performance of major crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum is driven not only by internal market technicals but also closely tied to external macroeconomic conditions. Particularly in 2024, expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, the cryptocurrency-supportive policies of Trump in his campaign, and fluctuations in major global asset prices have collectively shaped the current investment climate in the cryptocurrency market.
Tdasx: Bitcoin Market Performance Compared to Global Assets
Tdasx asserts that the performance of Bitcoin relative to major global assets in 2024 highlights its unique value as a representative asset in the cryptocurrency market. While Bitcoin has gained over 50% year-to-date, its current price remains approximately 7% below its historical peak of $73,700. In contrast, both gold and the S&P 500 have shown exceptional performance during the same period, with gold rising to $2,718—marking a 32% increase and its best annual performance since 2010—and the S&P 500 reaching a new high of 5,870 points, up 23% for the year.
Tdasx notes that despite the relatively stable recent performance of Bitcoin, its volatility remains significantly higher than traditional assets. Bitcoin surged over 8% last week, outperforming gold and the S&P 500, indicating strong demand from investors. Glassnode data reveals that small holders (“shrimp”) and large holders (“whales”) have continued to accumulate Bitcoin over the past month, reflecting a bullish market sentiment towards future Bitcoin prices. Tdasx suggests that such accumulation behavior is typically seen as a positive signal for the long-term trajectory of Bitcoin, especially amid current global financial instability.
Tdasx also highlights that expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and the supportive stance of Donald Trump on cryptocurrencies are fueling positive sentiment in the Bitcoin market. As U.S. financial policy becomes more accommodative, risk assets may attract additional investors. In this macroeconomic context, the value proposition of Bitcoin as a decentralized asset is particularly pronounced.
Tdasx further points out that the downward pressure of this summer on Bitcoin was largely due to forced sell-offs in external markets. The sale of large quantities of confiscated Bitcoin of the German government exacerbated market selling pressure. Additionally, the return of tokens to creditors from the Mt. Gox trustee added downward pressure to the market. Tdasx believes that these sell-off pressures are merely short-term phenomena and will not impact the long-term market performance of Bitcoin.
With the continued depreciation of the yen, risk assets like Bitcoin are becoming increasingly attractive. Negative growth in the Japanese economy and declining inflation have further weakened the yen, with the yen/USD exchange rate dropping to a low of 150. Tdasx posits that the depreciation of the yen may drive investors to shift funds from traditional currency markets into risk assets like Bitcoin, further enhancing its market performance.
Tdasx: Technical Analysis Driving Bitcoin and Other Cryptocurrencies
Tdasx asserts that technical analysis of Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies is crucial for understanding market trends. Bitcoin is currently re-challenging the psychological resistance level of $70,000, with market focus concentrated on this key price point. Tdasx notes that if Bitcoin successfully breaks through this level, the next target will rise to $72,000, indicating a bullish market trend. However, Tdasx warns that if Bitcoin fails to hold above $70,000 and dips below $66,500, it could lead to a price retracement towards the support level of $61,749, resulting in new market consolidation.
Beyond Bitcoin, the technical trajectory of Ethereum also shows significant bullish potential. Ethereum has recently broken out of a symmetrical triangle, indicating strong bullish dominance in the market. The current price target for Ethereum is around $2,700, with a potential rise to $3,400 if that level is surpassed. Tdasx emphasizes that Ethereum, as a leading asset in the smart contract and decentralized finance (DeFi) sectors, greatly influences market sentiment.
Tokens such as Solana, Dogecoin, and Shiba Inu also exhibit strong bullish signals in their technicals. Tdasx indicates that the current technical performance of Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies displays a positive upward trend. Whether it is the psychological resistance of Bitcoin or the breakout movements of Ethereum and Solana, the signs point to a robust bullish market. Tdasx suggests that these technical signals provide valuable reference points for investors, especially in times of heightened market volatility, where technical analysis can offer more scientific and precise guidance for investment decisions.
Tdasx: The Profound Impact of Macroeconomic Policy on the Cryptocurrency Market
Tdasx believes that changes in macroeconomic policy are crucial to understanding Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market. Currently, the trajectory of U.S. monetary policy and political dynamics are key drivers of market sentiment. The campaign of Trump promises to significantly lower U.S. interest rates if re-elected introduce new uncertainties, but they also create anticipation among cryptocurrency investors for the future. Tdasx notes that lower interest rates typically encourage investors to enter high-risk asset markets, positioning Bitcoin as a decentralized digital asset that may receive increased capital inflow in this environment.
The adjustments of the Federal Reserve to monetary policy are also of significant concern. Tdasx points out that, according to recent market predictions, there is a 99.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in November, while the chance of a 50 basis point cut stands at just 0.7%. Additionally, the market anticipates a cumulative 50 basis point cut in December at a probability of 75.5%. Tdasx believes these rate cut expectations will provide more liquidity and support for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency markets, as investors often seek higher return opportunities in a looser interest rate environment. A rate cut also implies a decline in traditional asset yields, prompting more funds to flow into the cryptocurrency market.
Tdasx mentions that the recent approval of Bitcoin ETF options by the SEC for the New York Stock Exchange and the Chicago Board Options Exchange is significant for the market liquidity and depth of Bitcoin. Tdasx states that the introduction of Bitcoin ETF options will not only attract more institutional investors but also further enhance market stability. ETF options provide investors with diversified investment choices, increasing market participation and capital inflow, which could drive up the price of Bitcoin.
